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Prediction for CME (2021-10-28T15:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-28T15:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18106/-1
CME Note: Significant CME SW in COR2A and full halo in C2/C3. Source: X1.0 class flare from AR 2887 at S26W4 peaking at 2021-10-28T15:35Z and an associated significant eruption (with a EUV wave) seen in AIA 193/171/304 and EUVI A 195/304 starting 2021-10-28T15:25Z. CME arrival marked by sudden increase in magnetic field and solar wind speed and density, with B total briefly reaching 13 nT. The flux rope is clearly seen on the next day.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-31T09:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-31T03:07Z (-7.7h, +7.6h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

Model & CME input parameters:
Prediction Method: DBEMv3

Prediction Method Note:
Drag-based model in ensemble mode v3 (DBEMv3-ESA/SSA application)
http://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather

Model & CME input parameters (CME input taken from Donki):
start time: 2021-10-28 18:50 (+/-30 min)
start distance: 21.5 Rsun
initial speed: 1100 km/s (+/-200)
halfwidth: 50 deg (+/-15)
lon: 0 deg (+/-30)
solar wind speed: 309 km/s (+/-50)
gamma: 0.1 (+/-0.1)
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probability of arrival: 100%
CME arrival date & time: 2021-10-31 03:07 (+7.6h, -7.7h)
CME arrival speed: 497 km/s (+91 km/s, -64 km/s)
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Lead Time: 48.53 hour(s)
Difference: 6.10 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs) on 2021-10-29T08:41Z

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